DU Alums Fantasy Football

Dikaia Upotheke - Justice Our Foundation

DU Alums 2025 Fantasy Football Power Rankings

Week 14 Update - Generated December 12, 2025 at 03:53 AM EST

A Message From Your Humble Commissioner's IT Department:

Creating this masterpiece of statistical analysis required approximately 47 hours of development time, $127 in cloud computing credits, 3 existential crises, and more caffeine than is medically advisable. The Monte Carlo simulation alone ran 10,000 iterations just so you ingrates could see that your 23% playoff odds are, in fact, mathematically justified rather than just vibes.

In light of these sacrifices, the author humbly suggests the following adjustments to the league's prize structure:

Original Payout Proposed Adjustment Justification
Weekly High Score: $50 $45 + $5 to IT "Analytics fee"
1st Place: $1,485 $1,400 + $85 to IT "Championship data processing surcharge"
2nd Place: $810 $780 + $30 to IT "Runner-up computational assessment"
3rd Place: $405 $390 + $15 to IT "Consolation algorithm maintenance"

These modest proposals would net approximately $135 in "totally legitimate" compensation, which the author would definitely spend on improving next year's analysis and not on bourbon. Probably.

— The Management

Week 15 Playoff Scenarios

Current Standings (After Week 14)

Seed Team Record Points For Playoff %
1 ZSF 9-5 1656.28 90.4%
2 MP 9-5 1587.82 91.1%
3 sgf 9-5 1526.08 64.7%
4 KIRK 9-5 1524.90 87.4%
5 GV 9-5 1485.96 63.6%
6 POO 8-6 1471.46 2.7%
7 GEMP (ELIMINATED) 7-7 1380.84 0.0%
8 KESS (ELIMINATED) 6-8 1334.74 0.0%
9 PATS (ELIMINATED) 5-9 1477.38 0.0%
10 ROUX (ELIMINATED) 5-9 1319.44 0.0%
11 3000 (ELIMINATED) 4-10 1288.56 0.0%
12 WOOD (ELIMINATED) 4-10 1229.16 0.0%

Week 15 Matchups (Final Week of Regular Season)

Matchup Favorite Win Prob Playoff Implications
WOOD vs ROUX WOOD 51% No playoff impact
GEMP vs GV GV 63% GV fighting for playoff spot
KESS vs PATS PATS 66% No playoff impact
MP vs POO MP 52% MP fighting for playoff spot; POO fighting for playoff spot
KIRK vs 3000 KIRK 76% KIRK fighting for playoff spot
sgf vs ZSF ZSF 62% sgf fighting for playoff spot; ZSF fighting for playoff spot

Playoff Probability by Seed

Team 1st Seed 2nd Seed 3rd Seed 4th Seed Total Playoff %
MP 19.6% 34.5% 14.4% 22.5% 91.1%
ZSF 61.8% 2.0% 9.6% 17.0% 90.4%
KIRK 6.3% 36.5% 34.2% 10.4% 87.4%
sgf 11.9% 18.4% 10.7% 23.6% 64.7%
GV 0.3% 8.6% 30.9% 23.9% 63.6%
POO 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.5% 2.7%

Clinch/Elimination Scenarios

ZSF (Currently #1, 9-5): - WIN and IN: Clinches playoff spot with a victory - With a LOSS: 74.6% playoff probability (needs help)

MP (Currently #2, 9-5): - WIN and IN: Clinches playoff spot with a victory - With a LOSS: 81.6% playoff probability (needs help)

sgf (Currently #3, 9-5): - WIN and IN: Clinches playoff spot with a victory - With a LOSS: 43.2% playoff probability (needs help)

KIRK (Currently #4, 9-5): - WIN and IN: Clinches playoff spot with a victory - With a LOSS: 47.7% playoff probability (needs help)

GV (Currently #5, 9-5): - WIN and IN: Clinches playoff spot with a victory - With a LOSS: 1.9% playoff probability (needs help)

POO (Currently #6, 8-6): - With a WIN: 5.7% playoff probability - LOSE and OUT: Eliminated with a loss

Week 15 Points For Tiebreaker Analysis

Teams with lose-and-still-in scenarios need these margins to win PF tiebreakers.

ZSF (Current PF: 1656.3) - Tiebreaker Margins:

Opponent Their PF Gap Margin ZSF Needs
MP 1587.8 68.5 ahead Hold lead
sgf 1526.1 130.2 ahead Hold lead
KIRK 1524.9 131.4 ahead Hold lead
GV 1486.0 170.3 ahead Hold lead
POO 1471.5 184.8 ahead Hold lead

MP (Current PF: 1587.8) - Tiebreaker Margins:

Opponent Their PF Gap Margin MP Needs
ZSF 1656.3 68.5 behind Outscore by >68
sgf 1526.1 61.7 ahead Hold lead
KIRK 1524.9 62.9 ahead Hold lead
GV 1486.0 101.9 ahead Hold lead
POO 1471.5 116.4 ahead Hold lead

sgf (Current PF: 1526.1) - Tiebreaker Margins:

Opponent Their PF Gap Margin sgf Needs
ZSF 1656.3 130.2 behind Outscore by >130
MP 1587.8 61.7 behind Outscore by >62
KIRK 1524.9 1.2 ahead Hold lead
GV 1486.0 40.1 ahead Hold lead
POO 1471.5 54.6 ahead Hold lead

KIRK (Current PF: 1524.9) - Tiebreaker Margins:

Opponent Their PF Gap Margin KIRK Needs
ZSF 1656.3 131.4 behind Outscore by >131
MP 1587.8 62.9 behind Outscore by >63
sgf 1526.1 1.2 behind Outscore by >1
GV 1486.0 38.9 ahead Hold lead
POO 1471.5 53.4 ahead Hold lead

GV (Current PF: 1486.0) - Tiebreaker Margins:

Opponent Their PF Gap Margin GV Needs
ZSF 1656.3 170.3 behind Outscore by >170
MP 1587.8 101.9 behind Outscore by >102
sgf 1526.1 40.1 behind Outscore by >40
KIRK 1524.9 38.9 behind Outscore by >39
POO 1471.5 14.5 ahead Hold lead

Complete Week 15 Decision Tree (64 Outcomes)

Click on tiebreaker scenarios (marked with ⚖️) to see PF margin requirements.

Week 15 Matchups

64 Possible Outcomes (Winner Combinations)

Playoff Participants

Tiebreaker Margin Requirements by Outcome

Outcome 4th Seed 5th Place PF Margin
KIRK, MP, ZSF, sgf (37.0%) ZSF GV +182.5
GV, MP, ZSF, sgf (15.1%) ZSF KIRK +140.8
GV, KIRK, ZSF, sgf (8.7%) ZSF MP +73.3

Scenario Details (Top 8 Most Likely)

Scenario 1 (5.2%): - WOOD beats ROUX - GV beats GEMP - PATS beats KESS - MP beats POO - KIRK beats 3000 - ZSF beats sgf - Playoffs: GV, KIRK, MP, ZSF

Scenario 2 (5.0%): - ROUX beats WOOD - GV beats GEMP - PATS beats KESS - MP beats POO - KIRK beats 3000 - ZSF beats sgf - Playoffs: GV, KIRK, MP, ZSF

Scenario 3 (4.8%): - WOOD beats ROUX - GV beats GEMP - PATS beats KESS - POO beats MP - KIRK beats 3000 - ZSF beats sgf - Playoffs: GV, KIRK, MP, ZSF

Scenario 4 (4.6%): - ROUX beats WOOD - GV beats GEMP - PATS beats KESS - POO beats MP - KIRK beats 3000 - ZSF beats sgf - Playoffs: GV, KIRK, MP, ZSF

Scenario 5 (3.2%): - WOOD beats ROUX - GV beats GEMP - PATS beats KESS - MP beats POO - KIRK beats 3000 - sgf beats ZSF - Playoffs: GV, KIRK, MP, sgf

Scenario 6 (3.1%): - WOOD beats ROUX - GEMP beats GV - PATS beats KESS - MP beats POO - KIRK beats 3000 - ZSF beats sgf - Playoffs: KIRK, MP, ZSF, sgf

Scenario 7 (3.0%): - ROUX beats WOOD - GV beats GEMP - PATS beats KESS - MP beats POO - KIRK beats 3000 - sgf beats ZSF - Playoffs: GV, KIRK, MP, sgf

Scenario 8 (3.0%): - WOOD beats ROUX - GV beats GEMP - PATS beats KESS - POO beats MP - KIRK beats 3000 - sgf beats ZSF - Playoffs: GV, KIRK, ZSF, sgf

A Note on ESPN's "Projections" (Read This First)

Before we dive into the numbers, let's address the elephant in the room: ESPN's projection system is fundamentally broken.

Here's what ESPN does: They project points for your entire starting lineup, including players who are on BYE weeks. That's right - if Jonathan Taylor is on BYE and will score exactly zero points this week, ESPN still includes his 19-point projection in your team's total. This isn't a minor oversight; it's a fundamental failure to understand how fantasy football works.

The result? ESPN's "projected points" are systematically inflated garbage that will mislead you into thinking your team is performing better than it actually will. Every single week, across every single team, their projections include phantom points from players who literally cannot play.

What We Do Instead

This analysis applies actual intelligence to the problem:

Projection Type What It Means
ESPN Raw ESPN's projection (includes BYE players who will score 0 - useless)
Corrected Baseline ESPN Raw minus unavailable players (the realistic floor)
Optimized Corrected + your best bench replacements (what a smart manager achieves)
Monte Carlo Input 60% Optimized + 40% Historical PPG (our simulation uses this)

The key insight: Our "Optimized" projection is always greater than or equal to the Corrected Baseline, because making smart lineup decisions always helps. But it's often less than ESPN's Raw projection - not because optimization hurts you, but because ESPN's number was bullshit to begin with.

When you see a matchup breakdown showing ESPN Raw at 103 but Optimized at 88, don't panic. The 88 is what you'll actually score. The 103 was a fantasy (pun intended) that included your BYE week player's imaginary contribution.

This analysis corrects for ESPN's incompetence so you can make informed decisions. You're welcome.

Season Snapshot

Metric Value
Weeks Played 14
Games Remaining 1
Playoff Teams 4
Tiebreaker Points For (Total Season Points)
Current Leader ZSF (9-5)
Highest Scorer ZSF (118.31 PPG)
Luckiest Team GEMP (+1.45 WAX)
Unluckiest Team PATS (-2.82 WAX)

Understanding the Metrics

Power Score (The Overall Ranking)

Power Score = (Real Wins × 2) + (Top6 Wins) + (MVP-W)

This is our ultimate measure of team quality. It heavily weights actual matchup wins (multiplied by 2) because winning is what matters most. But it also rewards teams that consistently score in the top half (Top6 Wins) and would beat multiple opponents each week (MVP-W).

MVP-W (Minimized Variance Potential Wins)

Your theoretical win rate if you played all teams in the league every single week. High scorers have high MVP-W; low scorers don't.

WAX (Wins Above Expectation)

WAX = Real Wins - MVP-W

Overall Power Rankings

Power Rankings

Power Score Breakdown

Power Score Breakdown

Power Score Evolution Over Time

Power Score Evolution

Monte Carlo Simulation Methodology

How We Predict the Future

Our playoff predictions use a hybrid Monte Carlo simulation that blends two data sources:

  1. OPTIMIZED Projections (60% weight) - ESPN's projections corrected for BYE weeks and injuries, with intelligent bench substitutions applied. This is NOT raw ESPN data - we fix their broken methodology first (see the ESPN critique above).

  2. Historical Performance (40% weight) - Each team's season-long PPG (points per game) and scoring variance, capturing their established scoring patterns.

The Optimization Process

Before running any simulations, we transform ESPN's garbage projections into something useful:

Step 1: ESPN Raw         = Sum of all starter projections (BROKEN - includes BYE players)
Step 2: Corrected Base   = ESPN Raw - unavailable points (BYE/Injured = 0)
Step 3: OPTIMIZED        = Corrected Base + best bench replacements

The OPTIMIZED projection is what enters our Monte Carlo simulation - not ESPN's inflated nonsense.

The Blending Formula

For each simulated game:

Expected Score = (0.6 × OPTIMIZED Projection) + (0.4 × Historical PPG)
Simulated Score = Random draw from Normal(Expected Score, Adjusted Variance)

Roster Health Adjustment

Teams with injured players have increased scoring variance in the simulation. This reflects the uncertainty when backup players replace starters: - Healthy roster (100%) → Standard variance - Injured starters → Variance increased by up to 50%

What We Track

For each of the 10,000 simulations, we record: 1. Final Win Total - How many wins each team ends with 2. Final Points For - Total season points (the tiebreaker for playoff seeding) 3. Final Standing - Where each team finishes in the standings

League Prize Structure ($3,000 Pool)

This league means business. Here's how the $250 buy-in breaks down:

Prize Amount Criteria
Weekly High Score $20 × 15 weeks = $300 Top scorer each week through Week 15
Playoff Pool $3,000 - $300 = $2,700 Split among top 3 playoff finishers
Playoff 1st Place 55% of $2,700 = $1,485 Win the championship tournament
Playoff 2nd Place 30% of $2,700 = $810 Lose in the finals
Playoff 3rd Place 15% of $2,700 = $405 Win the consolation bracket
Points-For Champion 50% of Total FAAB Spent Highest regular season Points For

The Points-For prize is unique: whoever scores the most total points during the regular season wins half of all FAAB spent by managers. Every dollar spent on waivers contributes $0.50 to this prize pool. Even if you miss the playoffs, outscore everyone else and you walk away with cash.

Why Points For Matters

Points For serves two purposes: 1. Tiebreaker for playoff seeding - Two teams with identical records? The one with more total points gets the higher seed. 2. Cash prize - Highest Points For at season's end wins the FAAB pool. Our simulation tracks Point-For leader probability for each team.

What "#1 Seed %" Means

The #1 Seed % column shows your probability of finishing as the regular season champion - the top seed heading into playoffs. This is based on finishing with the best record (and Points For as tiebreaker). This is NOT the probability of winning the playoff tournament.

Assumptions & Limitations

Monte Carlo Projection Summary

Monte Carlo Summary

Left: Win projections showing current wins plus expected gains. Right: Points For projections, critical for tiebreaker scenarios.

Playoff Predictions

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations blending ESPN projections with historical data.

Team Record Playoff % Most Likely Wins Projected PF Proj. Standing #1 Seed % PF Leader %
ZSF 9-5 90.4% 10 1776 #2.1 61.8% 96.3%
MP 9-5 91.1% 10 1700 #2.7 19.6% 3.7%
KIRK 9-5 87.4% 10 1637 #2.9 6.3% 0.0%
sgf 9-5 64.7% 9 1632 #3.5 11.9% 0.0%
GV 9-5 63.6% 10 1593 #4.0 0.3% 0.0%
POO 8-6 2.7% 8 1582 #5.8 0.0% 0.0%
GEMP 7-7 0.0% 7 1479 #7.0 0.0% 0.0%
PATS 5-9 0.0% 6 1586 #8.5 0.0% 0.0%
KESS 6-8 0.0% 6 1431 #8.8 0.0% 0.0%
ROUX 5-9 0.0% 5 1417 #9.7 0.0% 0.0%
3000 4-10 0.0% 4 1385 #11.4 0.0% 0.0%
WOOD 4-10 0.0% 5 1327 #11.6 0.0% 0.0%

Why Playoff % and Projected Standing Sometimes Conflict

These two metrics measure different things and can appear contradictory: - Playoff % = How often does this team finish in the top 4 across all simulations? - Projected Standing = What's their average finishing position across all simulations?

A team can have a lower Playoff % but better Projected Standing if they have high-variance outcomes. For example, Team A might make playoffs 70% of the time but usually as the #4 seed (avg standing ~#4.5). Team B might make playoffs only 65% of the time, but when they do, they're often #1 or #2 (avg standing ~#3.0). Team B's better average standing reflects their upside, even though they miss playoffs more often.

The tiebreaker (Points For) also matters. Two teams with identical records get separated by total points. A team with high scoring variance might occasionally miss playoffs on tiebreakers (lowering Playoff %) but also occasionally win the #1 seed (improving avg standing).

Bottom line: Playoff % tells you "will they make it?" while Projected Standing tells you "how good are they overall?"

Playoff Picture Analysis

Locked In: ZSF, MP - ESPN projections and historical data both agree: these teams are playoff-bound.

Looking Good: GV, sgf, KIRK - Strong position but not mathematically safe. The simulation likes their chances.

Long Shots: GEMP, POO, KESS, WOOD, ROUX, 3000, PATS - The simulations found very few paths to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler.

Tiebreaker Watch: Points For Leaders

Since Points For is the tiebreaker, here's who's positioned best if records end up tied:

Rank Team Current PF Projected Final PF Expected Addition
1 ZSF 1656 1776 +119
2 MP 1588 1700 +112
3 KIRK 1525 1637 +112
4 sgf 1526 1632 +106
5 GV 1486 1593 +107
6 PATS 1477 1586 +109

Expected Monetary Payouts

Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, here's what each team can expect to earn. This factors in playoff probability, Points-For leader chances, and weekly high-score potential.

Prize Pool Breakdown ($3,000 Total)

Source Amount Details
Buy-In $250 × 12 teams = $3,000 total pool
Weekly High Score $20 × 15 weeks = $300 allocated
Playoff Pool $3,000 - $300 = $2,700 remaining
1st Place 55% of $2,700 = $1,485
2nd Place 30% of $2,700 = $810
3rd Place 15% of $2,700 = $405
Points-For Champion 50% of Total FAAB = $240 (current)

FAAB Spending by Team (Incremental Cost)

FAAB spending is additional cost beyond the $250 buy-in. The Points-For winner takes home half of all FAAB spent across the league. Here's each manager's incremental investment:

Team FAAB Spent Contribution to PF Prize
PATS $92 $46
ZSF $88 $44
GV $60 $30
KESS $57 $28
POO $52 $26
ROUX $41 $20
KIRK $30 $15
sgf $24 $12
MP $16 $8
GEMP $12 $6
WOOD $8 $4
3000 $0 $0

| TOTAL | $480 | $240 (prize pool) |

Expected Payouts Summary

Each manager's total investment = $250 buy-in + (FAAB Spent ÷ 2). Net Expected shows expected profit/loss after accounting for all costs.

Team Playoff % PF Leader % Total Cost E[Playoff] E[PF Prize] E[Weekly] E[Return] Net Expected
ZSF 90.4% 96.3% $294 $973 $231 $29 $1232 $938
MP 91.1% 3.7% $258 $630 $9 $28 $666 $408
KIRK 87.4% 0.0% $265 $528 $0 $26 $554 $289
sgf 64.7% 0.0% $262 $370 $0 $26 $396 $134
GV 63.6% 0.0% $280 $199 $0 $26 $225 $-55
3000 0.0% 0.0% $250 $0 $0 $22 $22 $-228
GEMP 0.0% 0.0% $256 $0 $0 $24 $24 $-232
WOOD 0.0% 0.0% $254 $0 $0 $21 $21 $-233
ROUX 0.0% 0.0% $270 $0 $0 $23 $23 $-248
POO 2.7% 0.0% $276 $1 $0 $26 $26 $-250
KESS 0.0% 0.0% $278 $0 $0 $23 $23 $-255
PATS 0.0% 0.0% $296 $0 $0 $26 $26 $-270

How Expected Payouts Are Calculated

  1. E[Playoff] = P(1st) × $1,485 + P(2nd) × $810 + P(3rd) × $405
  2. Uses actual placement probabilities from Monte Carlo simulations

  3. Sum of all teams' E[Playoff] = $2,700 exactly (the full playoff pool)

  4. E[PF Prize] = PF Leader % × $240 (current FAAB pool ÷ 2)

  5. Your probability of finishing with the most Points For × the prize

  6. E[Weekly] = Probability × $300 (total weekly pool)

  7. Each team's probability = their PPG ÷ total league PPG

  8. Sum of all teams' E[Weekly] = $300 exactly

  9. Total Cost = $250 buy-in + (FAAB Spent ÷ 2)

  10. Every manager pays $250 to enter
  11. FAAB spending is incremental cost beyond the buy-in

  12. Half of your FAAB goes to the Points-For prize pool

  13. E[Return] = E[Playoff] + E[PF Prize] + E[Weekly]

  14. Your total expected winnings before costs

Net Expected = E[Return] - Total Cost - Positive = expected profit - Negative = expected loss

Note: E[Playoff] uses position-specific probabilities (1st/2nd/3rd) from Monte Carlo simulations, ensuring all expected payouts sum to exactly the prize pool.

The Lineup Optimizer: Your Secret Weapon

This is where our analysis truly shines. While ESPN happily includes BYE-week players in their projections (as if by magic they'll still score points from their couches), our Lineup Optimizer does what any competent fantasy manager should do: it identifies unavailable starters and finds the best possible bench replacements.

The Optimizer is nothing short of revolutionary. It scans every roster, detects BYE weeks using the official 2025 NFL schedule, identifies injured starters, and automatically calculates the optimal substitution from your bench. The result? Projections that reflect reality, not ESPN's fantasy land.

How the Optimizer Works

  1. BYE Week Detection - Cross-references every player's NFL team against the 2025 bye schedule
  2. Injury Scanning - Identifies starters with OUT, IR, DOUBTFUL, or SUSPENSION status (QUESTIONABLE players are assumed to play)
  3. Position Matching - Finds bench players eligible for each vacant starter slot (FLEX accepts RB, WR, or TE)
  4. Gain Calculation - Computes the projected point improvement from each substitution
  5. Confidence Scoring - Rates each move based on player projections and matchup strength

Key Modeling Assumptions

Key Lineup Moves This Week

All teams have optimal lineups set for the remaining weeks - no BYE or injury substitutions needed. The Optimizer found no improvements to suggest, which means every manager has already made the right calls. Well done, league!

Remaining Schedule (Weeks 15-15)

Win probabilities based on blended OPTIMIZED projections (60%) and historical data (40%). ESPN's broken projections have been corrected for BYE weeks and injuries before blending.

Week 15

Using OPTIMIZED projections (BYE/injured players zeroed, bench substitutions applied)

Matchup Optimized Proj Historical PPG MC Blended Favorite Win Prob
WOOD vs ROUX 105.3 vs 100.5 87.8 vs 94.2 98.3 vs 98.0 WOOD 51%
GEMP vs GV 97.9 vs 107.5 98.6 vs 106.1 98.2 vs 107.0 GV 63%
KESS vs PATS 97.0 vs 111.1 95.3 vs 105.5 96.3 vs 108.9 PATS 67%
MP vs POO 110.7 vs 113.5 113.4 vs 105.1 111.8 vs 110.1 MP 52%
KIRK vs 3000 113.6 vs 99.9 108.9 vs 92.0 111.7 vs 96.8 KIRK 77%
sgf vs ZSF 104.7 vs 119.6 109.0 vs 118.3 106.4 vs 119.1 ZSF 63%

Roster Health Report

Comprehensive injury status for all rostered players. Severity reflects likelihood of missing games and roster impact.

Severity Guide

Status Severity Meaning
Q (Questionable) Minor Concern Likely to play (80%+ historical play rate)
D (Doubtful) Moderate Concern Unlikely to play, but still possible
O (Out) Major Concern Confirmed out this week - find a replacement
IR Why is he even on your roster?! Long-term injury, taking up a roster spot

Team-by-Team Injury Report

WOOD (Health: 67%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Tucker Kraft WR IR Why is he even on your roster?! IR Slot
Josh Jacobs RB Q Minor Concern Starter
Aaron Jones Sr. RB Q Minor Concern Starter
Nick Chubb RB Q Minor Concern Bench
David Njoku WR Q Minor Concern Bench
Theo Johnson WR Q Minor Concern Starter

POO (Health: 78%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
CeeDee Lamb RB Q Minor Concern Starter
Devin Neal RB Q Minor Concern Bench
Ladd McConkey RB Q Minor Concern Starter

3000 (Health: 89%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Cade Otton WR O Major Concern Bench (O)
Woody Marks RB Q Minor Concern Starter
Jayden Reed RB Q Minor Concern IR Slot

sgf (Health: 89%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Sam LaPorta WR IR Why is he even on your roster?! IR Slot
Christian McCaffrey RB Q Minor Concern Starter
Marvin Harrison Jr. RB Q Minor Concern Bench

ROUX (Health: 89%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB Q Minor Concern Starter

MP (Health: 89%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Cam Skattebo RB IR Why is he even on your roster?! IR Slot
Justin Herbert QB Q Minor Concern Bench
Breece Hall RB Q Minor Concern Starter

KESS (Health: 89%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Zach Ertz WR IR Why is he even on your roster?! Bench (IR)
Joe Mixon RB O Major Concern IR Slot
Jordan Addison RB Q Minor Concern Bench
Mark Andrews WR Q Minor Concern Starter
Alvin Kamara RB Q Minor Concern Bench

ZSF (Health: 89%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Drake London RB O Major Concern IR Slot
De'Von Achane RB Q Minor Concern Starter
Rome Odunze RB Q Minor Concern Bench

KIRK (Health: 89%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Davante Adams RB Q Minor Concern Starter

PATS (Health: 100%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Trey Benson RB IR Why is he even on your roster?! IR Slot
Jayden Daniels QB O Major Concern Bench (O)

GV (Health: 100%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Jake Ferguson WR Q Minor Concern Bench

GEMP (Health: 100%)

Player Position Status Severity Role
Daniel Jones QB IR Why is he even on your roster?! Bench (IR)
Tyler Bass WR IR Why is he even on your roster?! IR Slot
Garrett Wilson RB IR Why is he even on your roster?! Bench (IR)
Tee Higgins RB Q Minor Concern Bench

Team-by-Team Analysis

Each team's analysis includes win/points projections, roster health status, and playoff outlook.

#1 ZSF - Power Score: 38.27

Record: 9-5 | PPG: 118.31 | Total PF: 1656 | Top6: 11 | MVP-W: 9.27 | WAX: -0.27

Sitting atop the standings with a commanding 9-5 record, this team has earned the top spot through dominant performance. Their 118.31 PPG leads the league, which translates to an impressive 9.27 MVP-W and 11 top-6 weekly finishes. Their -0.27 WAX shows they're earning their wins fair and square - no luck needed.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 10 wins | Projected PF: 1776 | Playoff: 90.4% | #1 Seed: 61.8%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 119.6 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 119.6 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 118.3 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 119.1 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

Strong odds at 90%, but fantasy football loves chaos. One bad week and this could get interesting. Key injuries to De'Von Achane (QUESTIONABLE) are devastating - the variance multiplier of 1.15x reflects massive uncertainty. Watch for potential boost if Drake London return(s) - could shift the distribution upward.

Roster Health & Availability Report: Key injuries: De'Von Achane (RB, QUESTIONABLE). Bench depth: James Cook III (RB) available. Watch for return: Drake London.

Injured Starters (1): - De'Von Achane (RB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 21.3 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate)

Potential Returns: - Drake London (RB): OUT - may return soon

Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 15%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs sgf:

Projection Type ZSF sgf
ESPN Raw 119.6 104.7
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 119.6 104.7
Optimized (+Bench) 119.6 104.7
Historical PPG 118.3 109.0
MC Blended 119.1 106.4

Expected Outcome: Favored (75% win probability) | Spread: +12.6

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1656 - Expected Additional PF: +119 - Projected Final PF: 1775

ZSF Monte Carlo

#2 MP - Power Score: 37.36

Record: 9-5 | PPG: 113.42 | Total PF: 1588 | Top6: 10 | MVP-W: 9.36 | WAX: -0.36

Second place with 9-5, trailing the leader by 0.91 power points. Scoring 113.42 PPG with 10 top-6 finishes shows genuine quality. That -0.36 WAX is frustrating - a bit more luck and they'd be in first.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 10 wins | Projected PF: 1700 | Playoff: 91.1% | #1 Seed: 19.6%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 110.7 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 110.7 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 113.4 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 111.8 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

Strong odds at 91%, but fantasy football loves chaos. One bad week and this could get interesting. Key injuries to Breece Hall (QUESTIONABLE) are devastating - the variance multiplier of 1.08x reflects massive uncertainty.

Roster Health & Availability Report: Key injuries: Breece Hall (RB, QUESTIONABLE).

Injured Starters (1): - Breece Hall (RB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 15.2 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate)

Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 8%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs POO:

Projection Type MP POO
ESPN Raw 110.7 113.5
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 110.7 113.5
Optimized (+Bench) 110.7 113.5
Historical PPG 113.4 105.1
MC Blended 111.8 110.1

Expected Outcome: Toss-up (55% win probability) | Spread: +1.7

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1588 - Expected Additional PF: +112 - Projected Final PF: 1700

MP Monte Carlo

#3 KIRK - Power Score: 36.55

Record: 9-5 | PPG: 108.92 | Total PF: 1525 | Top6: 10 | MVP-W: 8.55 | WAX: +0.45

Currently in the playoff picture at #3 with a 9-5 record. Their 108.92 PPG and 8.55 MVP-W put them in solid position. 10 top-6 finishes in 14 weeks shows they can compete with anyone.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 10 wins | Projected PF: 1637 | Playoff: 87.4% | #1 Seed: 6.3%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 113.6 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 113.6 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 108.9 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 111.7 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

Strong odds at 87%, but fantasy football loves chaos. One bad week and this could get interesting. Injuries to Davante Adams (QUESTIONABLE) add unpredictability to the projections.

Roster Health & Availability Report: Key injuries: Davante Adams (RB, QUESTIONABLE).

Injured Starters (1): - Davante Adams (RB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 14.2 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate)

Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 6%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs 3000:

Projection Type KIRK 3000
ESPN Raw 113.6 99.9
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 113.6 99.9
Optimized (+Bench) 113.6 99.9
Historical PPG 108.9 92.0
MC Blended 111.7 96.7

Expected Outcome: Favored (80% win probability) | Spread: +15.0

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1525 - Expected Additional PF: +112 - Projected Final PF: 1637

KIRK Monte Carlo

#4 sgf - Power Score: 34.36

Record: 9-5 | PPG: 109.01 | Total PF: 1526 | Top6: 8 | MVP-W: 8.36 | WAX: +0.64

Currently in the playoff picture at #4 with a 9-5 record. Their 109.01 PPG and 8.36 MVP-W put them in solid position. 8 top-6 finishes in 14 weeks shows they can compete with anyone.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 9 wins | Projected PF: 1632 | Playoff: 64.7% | #1 Seed: 11.9%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 104.7 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 104.7 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 109.0 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 106.4 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

Right on the knife's edge at 65%. ESPN projects enough points to stay competitive, but so does everyone else. 1 starter(s) dealing with injuries adds some variance (1.05x) to these projections. Only 0.4 more projected wins suggests a rough finish ahead.

Roster Health & Availability Report: 1 minor injury(s) in lineup. Bench depth: Jared Goff (QB) available.

Injured Starters (1): - Christian McCaffrey (RB, QUESTIONABLE): 0.0 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate)

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs ZSF:

Projection Type sgf ZSF
ESPN Raw 104.7 119.6
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 104.7 119.6
Optimized (+Bench) 104.7 119.6
Historical PPG 109.0 118.3
MC Blended 106.4 119.1

Expected Outcome: Underdog (25% win probability) | Spread: -12.6

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1526 - Expected Additional PF: +106 - Projected Final PF: 1632

sgf Monte Carlo

#5 GV - Power Score: 34.18

Record: 9-5 | PPG: 106.14 | Total PF: 1486 | Top6: 8 | MVP-W: 8.18 | WAX: +0.82

On the playoff bubble at #5 with 9-5. Still in decent shape with 63.6% playoff odds. Their 106.14 PPG and 8 top-6 finishes show potential. They've benefited from +0.82 WAX - riding some good matchups.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 10 wins | Projected PF: 1593 | Playoff: 63.6% | #1 Seed: 0.3%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 107.5 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 107.5 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 106.1 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 107.0 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

Right on the knife's edge at 64%. ESPN projects enough points to stay competitive, but so does everyone else.

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs GEMP:

Projection Type GV GEMP
ESPN Raw 107.5 97.9
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 107.5 97.9
Optimized (+Bench) 107.5 97.9
Historical PPG 106.1 98.6
MC Blended 107.0 98.2

Expected Outcome: Favored (72% win probability) | Spread: +8.8

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1486 - Expected Additional PF: +107 - Projected Final PF: 1593

GV Monte Carlo

#6 POO - Power Score: 30.09

Record: 8-6 | PPG: 105.10 | Total PF: 1471 | Top6: 7 | MVP-W: 7.09 | WAX: +0.91

On the playoff bubble at #6 with 8-6. Need to step it up - only 2.7% playoff odds right now. Their 105.10 PPG and 7 top-6 finishes show potential. They've benefited from +0.91 WAX - riding some good matchups.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 8 wins | Projected PF: 1582 | Playoff: 2.7% | #1 Seed: 0.0%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 113.5 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 113.5 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 105.1 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 110.1 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. Key injuries to CeeDee Lamb (QUESTIONABLE) are devastating - the variance multiplier of 1.12x reflects massive uncertainty. Only 0.5 more projected wins suggests a rough finish ahead.

Roster Health & Availability Report: Key injuries: CeeDee Lamb (RB, QUESTIONABLE).

Injured Starters (2): - CeeDee Lamb (RB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 16.2 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate) - Ladd McConkey (RB, QUESTIONABLE): 10.0 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate)

Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 12%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs MP:

Projection Type POO MP
ESPN Raw 113.5 110.7
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 113.5 110.7
Optimized (+Bench) 113.5 110.7
Historical PPG 105.1 113.4
MC Blended 110.1 111.8

Expected Outcome: Underdog (45% win probability) | Spread: -1.7

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1471 - Expected Additional PF: +110 - Projected Final PF: 1582

POO Monte Carlo

#7 PATS - Power Score: 26.82

Record: 5-9 | PPG: 105.53 | Total PF: 1477 | Top6: 9 | MVP-W: 7.82 | WAX: -2.82

Sitting at #7 with a 5-9 record - outside looking in. At just 0.0% playoff odds, it would take a miracle. Their 105.53 PPG suggests they have some scoring punch. The -2.82 WAX means they're better than their record - just unlucky.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 6 wins | Projected PF: 1586 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 111.1 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 111.1 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 105.5 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 108.9 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. Watch for potential boost if Jayden Daniels return(s) - could shift the distribution upward. Injured bench talent (Jayden Daniels (QB)) waiting in the wings if healthy.

Roster Health & Availability Report: Fully healthy starting lineup. Watch for return: Jayden Daniels.

Potential Returns: - Jayden Daniels (QB): OUT - may return soon

Injured Bench Players (High-Value): - Jayden Daniels (QB, OUT): 18.4 pts proj when healthy

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs KESS:

Projection Type PATS KESS
ESPN Raw 111.1 97.0
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 111.1 97.0
Optimized (+Bench) 111.1 97.0
Historical PPG 105.5 95.3
MC Blended 108.9 96.3

Expected Outcome: Favored (75% win probability) | Spread: +12.6

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1477 - Expected Additional PF: +109 - Projected Final PF: 1586

PATS Monte Carlo

#8 GEMP - Power Score: 23.55

Record: 7-7 | PPG: 98.63 | Total PF: 1381 | Top6: 4 | MVP-W: 5.55 | WAX: +1.45

Sitting at #8 with a 7-7 record - outside looking in. At just 0.0% playoff odds, it would take a miracle. Their 98.63 PPG suggests they have some scoring punch. That +1.45 WAX is actually concerning - they've been lucky and still can't crack the top 6.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 7 wins | Projected PF: 1479 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 97.9 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 97.9 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 98.6 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 98.2 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. Only 0.4 more projected wins suggests a rough finish ahead.

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs GV:

Projection Type GEMP GV
ESPN Raw 97.9 107.5
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 97.9 107.5
Optimized (+Bench) 97.9 107.5
Historical PPG 98.6 106.1
MC Blended 98.2 107.0

Expected Outcome: Underdog (28% win probability) | Spread: -8.8

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1381 - Expected Additional PF: +98 - Projected Final PF: 1479

GEMP Monte Carlo

#9 KESS - Power Score: 21.27

Record: 6-8 | PPG: 95.34 | Total PF: 1335 | Top6: 4 | MVP-W: 5.27 | WAX: +0.73

At #9 with 6-8, the season hasn't gone as planned. Averaging 95.34 PPG with only 4 top-6 finishes in 14 weeks. The +0.73 WAX is a red flag - even with good luck, they're struggling.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 6 wins | Projected PF: 1431 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 97.0 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 97.0 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 95.3 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 96.3 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. 1 starter(s) dealing with injuries adds some variance (1.04x) to these projections. Watch for potential boost if Joe Mixon return(s) - could shift the distribution upward. Only 0.3 more projected wins suggests a rough finish ahead.

Roster Health & Availability Report: 1 minor injury(s) in lineup. Watch for return: Joe Mixon.

Injured Starters (1): - Mark Andrews (WR, QUESTIONABLE): 7.5 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate)

Potential Returns: - Joe Mixon (RB): OUT - may return soon

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs PATS:

Projection Type KESS PATS
ESPN Raw 97.0 111.1
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 97.0 111.1
Optimized (+Bench) 97.0 111.1
Historical PPG 95.3 105.5
MC Blended 96.3 108.9

Expected Outcome: Underdog (25% win probability) | Spread: -12.6

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1335 - Expected Additional PF: +96 - Projected Final PF: 1431

KESS Monte Carlo

#10 ROUX - Power Score: 20.18

Record: 5-9 | PPG: 94.25 | Total PF: 1319 | Top6: 5 | MVP-W: 5.18 | WAX: -0.18

At #10 with 5-9, the season hasn't gone as planned. Averaging 94.25 PPG with only 5 top-6 finishes in 14 weeks.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 5 wins | Projected PF: 1417 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 100.5 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 100.5 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 94.2 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 98.0 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. 1 starter(s) dealing with injuries adds some variance (1.04x) to these projections. Only 0.5 more projected wins suggests a rough finish ahead.

Roster Health & Availability Report: 1 minor injury(s) in lineup.

Injured Starters (1): - Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB, QUESTIONABLE): 8.6 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate)

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs WOOD:

Projection Type ROUX WOOD
ESPN Raw 100.5 105.3
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 100.5 105.3
Optimized (+Bench) 100.5 105.3
Historical PPG 94.2 87.8
MC Blended 98.0 98.3

Expected Outcome: Toss-up (49% win probability) | Spread: -0.3

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1319 - Expected Additional PF: +98 - Projected Final PF: 1417

ROUX Monte Carlo

#11 3000 - Power Score: 17.27

Record: 4-10 | PPG: 92.04 | Total PF: 1289 | Top6: 4 | MVP-W: 5.27 | WAX: -1.27

Bringing up the rear at #11 with a 4-10 record. Their 92.04 PPG ranks near the bottom of the league. Only 4 top-6 finishes in 14 weeks tells the story. At least the -1.27 WAX shows they've had some bad luck.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 4 wins | Projected PF: 1385 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 99.9 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 99.9 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 92.0 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 96.8 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. 1 starter(s) dealing with injuries adds some variance (1.07x) to these projections. Only 0.2 more projected wins suggests a rough finish ahead.

Roster Health & Availability Report: 1 minor injury(s) in lineup.

Injured Starters (1): - Woody Marks (RB, QUESTIONABLE): 10.2 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate)

Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 7%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs KIRK:

Projection Type 3000 KIRK
ESPN Raw 99.9 113.6
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 99.9 113.6
Optimized (+Bench) 99.9 113.6
Historical PPG 92.0 108.9
MC Blended 96.7 111.7

Expected Outcome: Underdog (20% win probability) | Spread: -15.0

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1289 - Expected Additional PF: +97 - Projected Final PF: 1385

3000 Monte Carlo

#12 WOOD - Power Score: 16.09

Record: 4-10 | PPG: 87.80 | Total PF: 1229 | Top6: 4 | MVP-W: 4.09 | WAX: -0.09

Bringing up the rear at #12 with a 4-10 record. Their 87.80 PPG ranks near the bottom of the league. Only 4 top-6 finishes in 14 weeks tells the story.

Projection Summary: Most likely finish: 5 wins | Projected PF: 1327 | Playoff: 0.0% | #1 Seed: 0.0%

Projection Breakdown (Avg Per Game, Weeks 13-15):

Source Projection Notes
ESPN Raw 105.3 pts ESPN projection (includes BYE/injured starters)
Optimized 105.3 pts ESPN Raw - unavailable + bench subs
Historical PPG 87.8 pts Season average through week 12
Monte Carlo Input 98.3 pts 60% Optimized + 40% Historical

The computer ran 10,000 simulations and found essentially no path to the playoffs. Time to play spoiler. Key injuries to Josh Jacobs (QUESTIONABLE) are devastating - the variance multiplier of 1.13x reflects massive uncertainty.

Roster Health & Availability Report: Key injuries: Josh Jacobs (RB, QUESTIONABLE).

Injured Starters (3): - Josh Jacobs (RB, QUESTIONABLE) ⭐: 19.9 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate) - Aaron Jones Sr. (RB, QUESTIONABLE): 11.3 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate) - Theo Johnson (WR, QUESTIONABLE): 0.0 pts proj, Questionable - assumed to play (historical: 80%+ play rate)

Monte Carlo Variance Impact: Roster uncertainty increased simulation variance by 13%, widening outcome distributions. This means higher upside but also higher downside risk.

Lineup Status: Optimally set - no BYE week or injury substitutions needed.

Upcoming Matchups & Roster Decisions:

Week 15 vs ROUX:

Projection Type WOOD ROUX
ESPN Raw 105.3 100.5
Corrected (BYE/Inj=0) 105.3 100.5
Optimized (+Bench) 105.3 100.5
Historical PPG 87.8 94.2
MC Blended 98.3 98.0

Expected Outcome: Toss-up (51% win probability) | Spread: +0.3

Roster Decisions: None needed - lineup is optimally set.

Projected Season Totals (Optimized): - Current PF: 1229 - Expected Additional PF: +98 - Projected Final PF: 1327

WOOD Monte Carlo

Predicted Final Standings

Based on Monte Carlo simulation with ESPN projections and historical performance:

Rank Team Projected Wins Projected PF Current Record Playoff %
1 ZSF 9.6 1776 9-5 90.4%
2 MP 9.5 1700 9-5 91.1%
3 KIRK 9.8 1637 9-5 87.4%
4 sgf 9.4 1632 9-5 64.7%
5 GV 9.6 1593 9-5 63.6%
6 POO 8.5 1582 8-6 2.7%
7 GEMP 7.4 1479 7-7 0.0%
8 PATS 5.7 1586 5-9 0.0%
9 KESS 6.3 1431 6-8 0.0%
10 ROUX 5.5 1417 5-9 0.0%
11 3000 4.2 1385 4-10 0.0%
12 WOOD 4.5 1327 4-10 0.0%

Projected Playoff Matchups

If playoffs started today (top 4 make it, seeded by record then Points For):

Semifinal 1: #1 ZSF (Proj. PF: 1776) vs #4 sgf (Proj. PF: 1632)

Semifinal 2: #2 MP (Proj. PF: 1700) vs #3 KIRK (Proj. PF: 1637)

Data Sources & Methodology

Component Source Weight
Weekly Projections ESPN Fantasy API 60%
Historical Performance Season-to-date PPG 40%
Scoring Variance Season standard deviation Adjusted for injuries
Roster Health ESPN Injury Designations Increases variance
Tiebreaker Total Points For League Setting

Analysis generated by ESPN Fantasy Football Scraper using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. May your players stay healthy and your opponents' stars have bye weeks.